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2024 Election Impact on Supreme Court: Higher Education and Legal Ramifications

On June 29, 2023, the Supreme Court issued a ruling against race-conscious college admissions, concluding that affirmative action policies designed to address historical discrimination and promote diversity are in violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

With the 2024 election approaching, the outcomes of significant legal cases, including Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, are expected to bring considerable changes that may further affect higher education.

Implications of the Ruling

Duncan Hosie, an appellate lawyer and former ACLU fellow, noted the close relationship between the Supreme Court’s future and the forthcoming election, highlighting the pronounced rightward shift in American law resulting from appointments made during the Trump administration.

The ruling on affirmative action is anticipated to have implications for student loans and Title IX policies. Hosie pointed out that a potential Kamala Harris administration might face conservative legal challenges to initiatives aimed at educational access and diversity programs. Conversely, should Trump win the election, progressive legal challenges could emerge targeting policies perceived to undermine academic independence.

Litigation Risks

Gerard Magliocca, a law professor at Indiana University’s McKinney School of Law, mentioned that higher education institutions may face litigation concerning their adherence to the ruling on affirmative action, irrespective of which party prevails in the presidential election. Civil rights attorney Alex Taubes had indicated in earlier discussions that the likelihood of lawsuits against institutions, such as Yale, regarding race-based admissions practices could rise if Trump is elected.

During Trump’s presidency, the U.S. Department of Education investigated Yale’s admissions methodologies concerning race from 2020 until the investigation’s conclusion in 2021, following President Biden’s inauguration.

Future Considerations for Title IX

Amanda Shanor, a professor at the Wharton School, speculated that the Supreme Court could review Title IX cases within the next year or two, potentially leading to decisions on the extent of sexual assault protections and the applicability of sex discrimination safeguards to LGBTQ+ students.

Potential Court Composition Changes

Looking ahead, the possible retirement of three senior justices could notably impact the Court’s composition, depending on whether any justices choose to retire during the next presidential term and the political landscape of the Senate at that time.

Linda Greenhouse, a senior research scholar at Yale Law School, emphasized that the next president’s influence on the Supreme Court will be significantly shaped by these factors. Samuel Moyn, a professor of law and history at Yale, indicated that the future of justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas could heavily determine the Court’s direction, particularly in the event Trump appoints a new justice to replace Sonia Sotomayor.

Moyn also suggested that a Harris administration could lead to a more liberal composition of the Court, a shift not seen in recent decades. However, Greenhouse cautioned that if a nomination occurs when the White House and Senate are controlled by opposing parties, it could result in substantial political obstacles.

Political Landscape and Nomination Efforts

Current projections indicate that Republicans are likely to gain control of the Senate, which could complicate nomination efforts under a potential Harris administration. Magliocca expressed doubts about the likelihood of retirements during a Harris presidency but acknowledged that a Trump victory might increase the chances of both Alito and Thomas resigning.

Overall Direction of the Supreme Court

Legal experts anticipate that, regardless of the presidential administration, the Supreme Court’s overall direction is unlikely to change significantly. Moyn mentioned the Court’s consistent rightward trend observed over the past 50 years and suggested that landmark rulings akin to Roe v. Wade are improbable with the new administration.

Greenhouse reiterated that the conservative trend within the Court is expected to continue, and she does not foresee a reinstatement of abortion rights. However, she noted that there are many potential opportunities for the conservative majority to further modify existing legal precedents.

Future Rulings and Free Speech Issues

David Lat assessed the likelihood of the Court revisiting landmark cases as low, proposing instead that forthcoming rulings may concentrate on First Amendment issues, particularly in light of recent discussions over free speech in academic environments.

Shanor concluded that the outcome of the presidential election will ultimately influence the Court’s trajectory, suggesting that a Harris presidency could encourage conservative justices to adopt more moderate stances.

(Original source: Yale Daily News)

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